This course is taught in 2 parts. Part 1 (Macroeconomics) provides a framework for analyzing the global economy and policies that impact global financial markets. Specifically, major growth drivers for an economy and how monetary policies affect spending and investment decisions. It will also analyze the tools used by different central banks when implementing monetary policy. Part 2 (Cycles, Crises and Bubbles) provides an analysis of the major frenzies and crashes in the post-war global financial system: Why they happened, policy responses, and why they happened again. It provides a top level understanding of the rhythm of global financial crises. This is followed by analysing conventional and unconventional indicators to spot warning signs of frenzies and crashes. A top-down understanding of where an economy is in terms of the business cycle and recognition of indicators of bubbles and financial crisis is very important in driving investment decisions to manage client portfolios. This course provides an analysis of the major frenzies and crashes in the post-war global financial system. It analyzes why the crises happened, the policy responses and why they happened again. It provides a top-level understanding of the rhythm of global financial crises. Finally, conventional and unconventional indicators to spot warning signs of bubbles and crashes are analyzed. Course Learning Objectives Part 1 (Macroeconomics): The learning objectives of this course are: 1. Introduction to economic growth a. Growth accounting b. Growth drivers 2. Monetary and Fiscal Policy a. Relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy b. Monetary policy under inflation c. Monetary policy under deflation 3. Central Banks a. The impossible trinity of policies b. The Federal Reserve of the United States c. The Monetary Authority of Singapore d. The People’s Bank of China Part 2 (Cycles, Crises and Bubbles): The learning objectives of this course are: a) Introduction to Business and Financial Cycles i. Understand business and financial cycles and the stage of the cycle to assess implications for different asset classes ii. Understand likely policy response during different stages of business and financial cycles b) Analyze Bubbles and Crises in the post second world war global financial system i. Analyze the run up phase of a bubble and its causes including the role of credit financing, foreign capital inflows, changes in policy and financial regulation ii. Analyze the crash phase of the crisis including the trigger (s), the impact on the real economy and the financial sector, including banking, and policy measures to deal with the crisis iii. Analyze the Recovery Phase, including the pace of recovery, the policy measures to deal with the aftermath of the crisis iv. (i), (ii) and (iii) above will be analyzed using post War episodes of bubbles and crisis including the recent sub-prime crisis, the Asian crisis, the Japan Balance Sheet and the Latin American Debt Crisis c) Indicators of Bubbles and Financial Crises i. Examine and understand indicators to spot and assess presence of a bubble and potential crisis in the asset markets as well as indicators of economic and financial vulnerabilities ii. Learn lessons from earlier episodes of bubbles and crisis and identify suitable strategies to manage client portfolios over business and financial cycles, and during periods of bubbles and crisis, including during periods of excessive market volatility. iii. Anticipate and examine policy responses and their impact on financial markets during cycles, bubbles and crisis to formulate relevant strategies for wealth management.
Total Training Duration / CPD Hours: 39
